Pitching - The Red Sox Strength????

[MongoLikeSox]

Wanna see something beyond strange? Indulge me for a few minutes. Two baseball reference links to open in separate tabs.

The MLB team positional comps in terms of WAR. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2023  Click on drop-down selection box titled "Highlight a Team" and select our beloved Red Sox.
The MLB team pitching stats. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-standard-pitching.shtml Click on ERA to order the chart in descending order.

The WAR chart shows the Red Sox at 13th overall out of 30 teams. Easy enough to call it about league average and our record indicates the same. Look at the next three columns. All P(All pitching), SP (starting pitching) and RP (relief pitching). We are 6th, 8th and 6th respectively out of 30 teams. So that's gotta be bullcrap, right? Something is off, you say. So look at the bottom 10 of the team ERA in the second link. All of those teams are also in the bottom 10 of the All P column of the WAR chart, just as you would predict. The Red Sox are 6th. What???

What the hell?
 
OK, so to regroup. The WAR chart shows our pitching is 6th overall, but we're 20th in ERA. Just baffles the mind, right?  So what's the difference between those two charts. Does the pitching WAR chart indicate that our defense let the pitchers down by that big of an amount? Is it simply a strange-ass anomaly? Hell, the WAR chart even suggests that our pitching was the string suit of the team. Then again, the position columns do factor in our wretched defense.

Food for thought.

[longgame]

They've had their moments for sure. Part of the problem was when the starters were going good the pen wasn't. Then the starters all broke down. The good news is they got some good performances out of Bello (not today), Whitlock, Houck and even Crawford.  They'll have to figure out if Pivetta remains a depth piece but if they didn't have old oft-injured guys at the "top" of the rotation they could be a force.

[elktonnick]

In my opinion one of the most underestimated issues with Red Sox pitching is Cora.  He takes his starters out often too soon.  He takes too many relievers who are doing well out also too soon.  He has guys warming up who he never brings in. 

I knew in June that the.way he was using the pen was going to exhaust bull pen come September.

[SeaBeachFred]

In my opinion one of the most underestimated issues with Red Sox pitching is Cora.  He takes his starters out often too soon.  He takes too many relievers who are doing well out also too soon.  He has guys warming up who he never brings in. 

I knew in June that the.way he was using the pen was going to exhaust bull pen come September.

It was that way last year too when he gassed out our bullpen, but the team never determined to strengthen their pitching, then blew it sky high when they didn't resign Wacha and let Eovaldi walk and tied their fortunes to over the hill bums like the Plue.  Any way you look at it the team will never be a serious contender until Cora is shown the door.  Not only is he a good handler of pitching staff but he is a rotten cheater besides who has made the Red Sox a haven for derelicts and incompetents.  Hey Henry, we will be talking about this the same time next year about this guy who you seem to love.  Only goes to show me  that you know shit about pitching, honesty and comptence.

[MongoLikeSox]

I was sitting on this for about a week, trying to make sense of it. Trying to decide if it this was not just a simple anomaly. I decided that at least some of the ERA vs WAR difference could be explained if the pitching WAR stats factored in our 27th ranked team Defensive Efficiency Rating. Kind of like a hitting stat that factors in a ball park. Plays that an average MLB player should make, of soft contact that didn't get tracked down or otherwise caught. In other words, not just errors.

Perhaps the pitching WAR stat is smart enough to know and somehow includes what a Pitchers' result SHOULD have looked like given a suitable, average defense?

The flip-side is also food for thought. It seemed like we were always watching opponents' pitchers protect their team-mates who just made an error behind them. I'm sure we had our share of that on our own team, but it didn't always look like it to me. Did our guys cave in to the pressure of having to do that so often? Hell, a couple of plays not made could spell doom for a non-cora favorite. Before we know it, it's a 40-pitch inning and enjoy your time on the IL as Cora tries to save the pen for another day. 

Ugly stuff.

[longgame]

Same thought here Mongo.  How many unearned runs did this team give up?  Also, how many earned runs shouldn't have been runs because of misplays that weren't scored as errors?

[SeaBeachFred]

Mongo and Ted, in the course of my disappointments with our star crossed team, don't think that those same ideas didn't cross my mind as well.  Our defense was almost non-existent most of the season, and that reference to a non Cora favorite hit home with me like a hatchet.  Of course, between jerking off his non favorites like Arroyo and Duran, among others, his constant shifting of players around the diamond and his constant platooning only exacerbated the problems the team had.  Being a cheater didn't help his standing with me either and I wonder what some of his players thought of preforming for a guy who was the mastermind of the cheating controversy when he ran that shoddy show for the Astros in 2017.  He was also a butcher the way he handled the pitching staff----a sad and sorry story in itself.  Hopefully he will not be managing  the team next season, but if he is  he problems will still be there with him at the helm because somewhere along the way he has lost his mojo, his sense of decency and his ability to run a ball club.  Red Sox fans deserve better, and when a fanatic convert like me who has lived and died with the team for the past 23 years doesn't even deign himself  to see who they are playing now, you know I must have company in that regard because I know you two among o thers I know feel the same way about the team as I do.  I keep asking myself....WHAT THE HELL HAS HAPPENED TO OUR TEAM??????  But we really all know the answer, don't we?

[Sea Dog 23]

With the arrival of Breslow, the all seeing and all knowing analyst of the perfect pitcher, they have uncovered this gem for the spin-rate/movement enthusiasts,

There were 172 pitchers who had 100+ PA that ended with a 4-seam FB.

One pitcher (from all pitchers) had the 3rd most movement, and he had the most movement among starting pitchers.

(21.3" -- 19.0" of rise relative to gravity, and 9.5" of armside run).

None other than our own Kutter Crawford.

[MongoLikeSox]

And to think he came up to Boston with just cheese or breaking stuff at the same speed. A few weeks in the minors and he comes back with one of the nastiest breaking pitches in baseball. I hope he and Houck have breakout years.

Any idea where Breslow stands on starting pitching?

[Sea Dog 23]

And to think he came up to Boston with just cheese or breaking stuff at the same speed. A few weeks in the minors and he comes back with one of the nastiest breaking pitches in baseball. I hope he and Houck have breakout years.

Any idea where Breslow stands on starting pitching?

I've seen some feedback from the number crunchers, that Julio Urias is possibly the best fit for free agent pitching.  "They won't spend for Blake Snell.  Montgomery not a good fit."

Bello, Sale, add two of free agents, one of Crawford/Houck/Pivetta.  Many writers are picking Yamamota, a righty, to join Sox nest year.  Until Breslow arrives at the round table, it's hard to say who he would choose.

[MongoLikeSox]

And to think he came up to Boston with just cheese or breaking stuff at the same speed. A few weeks in the minors and he comes back with one of the nastiest breaking pitches in baseball. I hope he and Houck have breakout years.

Any idea where Breslow stands on starting pitching?

I've seen some feedback from the number crunchers, that Julio Urias is possibly the best fit for free agent pitching.  "They won't spend for Blake Snell.  Montgomery not a good fit."

Bello, Sale, add two of free agents, one of Crawford/Houck/Pivetta.  Many writers are picking Yamamota, a righty, to join Sox nest year.  Until Breslow arrives at the round table, it's hard to say who he would choose.

I'm wondering if Breslow is tied to the whole 4-5 innings thing, or if he's dedicated to trying to get 6+ innings out of pitchers?

I wonder why Montgomery would not be a good fit?

Did Urias get cleared by MLB on his domestic violence charges that caused the Dodgers to shut down his season a few days into September? A "Felony corporal injury on a spouse" charge, or something like that. 

[Sea Dog 23]

Spotrac did the following salaries and favorites for pitchers in FA

1. Ohtani: 12/$552m to Dodgers
2. Snell: 5/$115m to Orioles
3. Nola: 6/$140m to Diamondbacks
7. Kershaw: 1/$23m + incentives to Dodgers
8. Yamamoto: 5/$85m to Mets
9. S. Gray: 3/$66m to Twins
10. Montgomery: 6/$110m to Rangers