Prospect Bottlenecks - Hoarding?

[MongoLikeSox]

One of the constants of the Red Sox over the past twenty years has been their inability to develop pitchers.  It is not my imagination that pitchers today and Red Sox pitchers in particular are injured more today than in the 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s. Dr Andrews the noted orthopedic surgeon said in an interview in 2017 that one of reasons for this increase in pitching injuries is poor mechanics. 

To my way of thinking the team that can figures out it is better for their pitchers to focus on proper mechanics and pitches that do not put undue strain on the forearm and elbow. will achieve a significant advantage.

Curt Schilling years ago noted that teams that avoided having their starters being placed on the IL tended to do better than those who did not.

If it were up to me I would stay away from pitchers who depend on the cutter and I would not encourage it in the minor leagues.

Is the Cutter the new Screwball when it comes to ruining pitchers' arms?

I think the additional factor of revolving door bullpens and rotations that make these guys throw as hard as they can more often doesn't help. Even the pitching-rich teams like Tampa and New York have been struggling mightily in recent years with pitching injuries.

One odd, seemingly backwards statistic that doesn't make sense. MLB had 87 pitchers make 25 or more starts in 1992. Last year was 94.   

[elktonnick]

For what it's worth the screwball is no risker pitch to throw than the curve ball.  The late Mike Marshall believed it was safer.  Warren Spahn threw a pitch similar to the screwball which was what today they call a circle change.  IMHO Spahn was the greatest pitcher of the post WW2 era.

[MongoLikeSox]

For what it's worth the screwball is no risker pitch to throw than the curve ball.  The late Mike Marshall believed it was safer.  Warren Spahn threw a pitch similar to the screwball which was what today they call a circle change.  IMHO Spahn was the greatest pitcher of the post WW2 era.

I think every time I hear that name(Spahn), I look up his stats. Just amazing. 8 straight years of leading the league in complete games AFTER turning 36. Not a late bloomer, though, as he won something like 204 games before that stretch even started. Even the offense for a pitcher factor was interesting in that he went quite a few years of multi-HR seasons that ended when he turned 42(ish).

I had a pitcher on my Sr League team. Hardest thrower in the league. Came out both seasons throwing no-hitters, but lost the extra zip by 5th-6th game. He started throwing a pitch akin to a change. I heard that later on he was pitching two games a weekend during travel tournaments with that Change being a primary pitch.

[MongoLikeSox]

Blaze Jordan got his first AA homer out of the way last night. 2-run game winner at Reading in the 9th. The rest of the team struck out 16 times.

Enmanuel Valdez went out with a hammie situation early in the Worcester game. Fitzgerald is on a rehab assignment in the FCL. Only one game so far, last night, and that was to DH. Still a ways away from getting back to Worcester, I suspect.

Roman Anthony with his 8th dinger for Greenville in 18 games. .365 BA, 1.379 OPS and one more BB than K. Always fun to see short bursts of time stats when hot. If we're still talking about him like this in a month.... 'oy!

[MongoLikeSox]

Some more fun stuff from the Minors.

Wikelman Gonzalez started a 3-pitcher No Hitter for Portland yesterday. He pitched 6 innings allowing 1 run on 4 walks while striking out 10. That gives him 19 K's in 12 IP while allowing 1R, 4H and 5BB in his 2 starts since being promoted.

Also in Portland, the 2022 promotion turned disaster named Alex Binelas has turned it around. At one point in May he was hitting .174 with a K-rate of 49%. He's hitting .295 since June 1st with 9 HRs in 27 games and an OPS of .983.

Yordanny Monegro is still on fire in Salem. He did allow his first run in 4 starts since his promotion. The last start only lasted 3.2 innings, but that was because of a 77 pitch count, which is close to his limit.

Nathan Hickey is quietly putting together a huge year. Monthly splits are as consistent as you'll see with 30 points separating the worst and the best. His .286 July average is also his average on the year. He can hit the cover off the ball. He's got 15 HRs between A+ and AA. 29% K-rate is high, and the 2-out, RISP BA of .239 both need improvement.  His caught stealing numbers are still low, but are increasing. He's "up" to 12% now, which is much better than a month or so ago. I've not seen a lot of the bad catcher behind the plate thing with him as I've seen with Alfaro and a little bit with Ronaldo Hernandez. I'm going to pay more attention. It's tough sometimes to see play detail with these Minor League telecasts.

[Sea Dog 23]

Some more fun stuff from the Minors.

Wikelman Gonzalez started a 3-pitcher No Hitter for Portland yesterday. He pitched 6 innings allowing 1 run on 4 walks while striking out 10. That gives him 19 K's in 12 IP while allowing 1R, 4H and 5BB in his 2 starts since being promoted.

Also in Portland, the 2022 promotion turned disaster named Alex Binelas has turned it around. At one point in May he was hitting .174 with a K-rate of 49%. He's hitting .295 since June 1st with 9 HRs in 27 games and an OPS of .983.


Yordanny Monegro is still on fire in Salem. He did allow his first run in 4 starts since his promotion. The last start only lasted 3.2 innings, but that was because of a 77 pitch count, which is close to his limit.

Nathan Hickey is quietly putting together a huge year. Monthly splits are as consistent as you'll see with 30 points separating the worst and the best. His .286 July average is also his average on the year. He can hit the cover off the ball. He's got 15 HRs between A+ and AA. 29% K-rate is high, and the 2-out, RISP BA of .239 both need improvement.  His caught stealing numbers are still low, but are increasing. He's "up" to 12% now, which is much better than a month or so ago. I've not seen a lot of the bad catcher behind the plate thing with him as I've seen with Alfaro and a little bit with Ronaldo Hernandez. I'm going to pay more attention. It's tough sometimes to see play detail with these Minor League telecasts.

Mongo, looking at catcher for 2024 - to pair with Wong -   Steven Scott was hitting .284 and .902 OPS at Worcester earlier this year.  For some reason they sent him down to Portland, maybe for fundamentals retraining, I don't know.  Nathan Hickey is projected arrival in Boston in 2025.  Interesting if they will go out and get a FA catcher for next year.  They surely have some top talent down the road in Teel and Brannon.

[MongoLikeSox]

Some more fun stuff from the Minors.

Wikelman Gonzalez started a 3-pitcher No Hitter for Portland yesterday. He pitched 6 innings allowing 1 run on 4 walks while striking out 10. That gives him 19 K's in 12 IP while allowing 1R, 4H and 5BB in his 2 starts since being promoted.

Also in Portland, the 2022 promotion turned disaster named Alex Binelas has turned it around. At one point in May he was hitting .174 with a K-rate of 49%. He's hitting .295 since June 1st with 9 HRs in 27 games and an OPS of .983.


Yordanny Monegro is still on fire in Salem. He did allow his first run in 4 starts since his promotion. The last start only lasted 3.2 innings, but that was because of a 77 pitch count, which is close to his limit.

Nathan Hickey is quietly putting together a huge year. Monthly splits are as consistent as you'll see with 30 points separating the worst and the best. His .286 July average is also his average on the year. He can hit the cover off the ball. He's got 15 HRs between A+ and AA. 29% K-rate is high, and the 2-out, RISP BA of .239 both need improvement.  His caught stealing numbers are still low, but are increasing. He's "up" to 12% now, which is much better than a month or so ago. I've not seen a lot of the bad catcher behind the plate thing with him as I've seen with Alfaro and a little bit with Ronaldo Hernandez. I'm going to pay more attention. It's tough sometimes to see play detail with these Minor League telecasts.

Mongo, looking at catcher for 2024 - to pair with Wong -   Steven Scott was hitting .284 and .902 OPS at Worcester earlier this year.  For some reason they sent him down to Portland, maybe for fundamentals retraining, I don't know.  Nathan Hickey is projected arrival in Boston in 2025.  Interesting if they will go out and get a FA catcher for next year.  They surely have some top talent down the road in Teel and Brannon.

I think the Scott demotion was a very short-lived needs-based thing. I'm not sure he even made it into a game. He's still in Worcester and had a two 3-run HR game recently. His CS numbers are the nearly same as Hickey's. Better than Hernandez behind the plate, I think. I just don't see any of them enough to tell much. They all look bad to me these days with that one knee up thing they've been doing.

Scott's bad offensive year last year is beginning to look like the odd year. Still, even that bad year he had below 25% K-rate. Could have been typical Red Sox system over-meddling.

[MongoLikeSox]

As much as I've been raving about the Farm this past couple of months, they're now in a struggling mode. Could have been trade talk related. To save space, if you're not named Ceddanne Rafaela, you're in a slump of some sort at the plate or got injured.

Pitching has been mixed. The "I hope it isn't bad news" news is Wikelman Gonzales went to the Development List after a scorching start to his AA tenure. Keeping fingers crossed on that one.

[MongoLikeSox]

Roman Anthony was amongst the key prospects who have nose-dived after the All Star break, batting .196 for the next 2-1/2 weeks. His August start got much better, hitting .348 with 2 HR and 2 BB over his last 6 games. On a side note, it's refreshing to see a Minor League batting slump only last a couple of weeks instead of months on end like so many had last year.

Wikelman Gonzalez followed last weeks big start with a 4IP, 8K,  5BB and 1R night. He hit the 90 pitch count to get out of the 4th, so did not come back out. His achilles has been Walks. Now 4 games into his AA stint, he's sporting a 1.71 ERA, BA .117, 21 IP, 31 K's and 14 BB's including a 61% strike pct. He's still only 21. Hopefully he gets some pitch command soon. 

Brooks Brannon is now out for the year in Salem. Well, 60-day IL, but the math.....

[longgame]

I'm sure they were all watching the trade wire as we were.  You're dreaming about playing in Fenway Park and worrying about being dealt to Cleveland. Maybe a guy ahead of you gets moved and you get a chance.  Then they are adjusting for different levels (something that distinguishes Rafaela).  Like I don't worry much about draft picks, I can't get worried about slumps in the minors.  They're there to learn how to battle through those - or not and let's wash them out now.

[SeaBeachFred]

The reason I firmly believe that Bloom has to be cashiered after this season is because I don't WANT HIM BEING THE GUY WHO INSTITUTES TRADES THIS OFF SEASON.  TRYING TO SAVE HIS JOB HE JUST MIGHT GO HOG WILD OVER A COUPLE OF MEDIOCRE PITCHERS AND DENUDE OUR TOP PROSPECTS  OF GUYS LIKE MAYER, JORDAN, YORKE AND THE LIKE.  I don't trust this guy at all.  To me he is a colossus incompetent and unless he is done away with we will be talking about another dismal season about this time next year.  For pete's sake get rid of him Pruney.

[Sea Dog 23]

The reason I firmly believe that Bloom has to be cashiered after this season is because I don't WANT HIM BEING THE GUY WHO INSTITUTES TRADES THIS OFF SEASON.  TRYING TO SAVE HIS JOB HE JUST MIGHT GO HOG WILD OVER A COUPLE OF MEDIOCRE PITCHERS AND DENUDE OUR TOP PROSPECTS  OF GUYS LIKE MAYER, JORDAN, YORKE AND THE LIKE.  I don't trust this guy at all.  To me he is a colossus incompetent and unless he is done away with we will be talking about another dismal season about this time next year.  For pete's sake get rid of him Pruney.

Fred, no doubt the inaction /passive-aggressive, whatever you call it, by Bloom the past two years of hoarding prospects has stacked up large groups prospects.  He has to go -- NOW --- and not keep screwing this up.  We now have 70-75 prospects that have to be traded, or exposed to the Rule 5 draft in the next few months.

Looking at the 40-man that we are protecting, there are about 15 who can come off that list.  Names like Dalbec, Refsnyder, Valdez (and Turner/Paxton moving on for better FA deals).  That latter group includes about a half-dozen dumpster dives for the bullpen that nobody in MLB really wants.  It's a real mess that he has made.

[MongoLikeSox]

I think this year's Rule-5 Draft is going to be more about the Minor League phase. It pretty much always is. The MLB phase is mostly pitchers. Last year saw 15 players get nabbed. 13 of them were pitchers. 3 were from us, but we got 2 back.

The Minor League portion is where we need to be careful, though. This means no dumpster diving before the draft. The more we dive, the more we lose. Simple as that. We get to protect up to 38 Rule-5 eligible Minor League players by placing them on the 38-man AAA roster. There are no placement rules for drafting teams in this phase. It's a free-for-all. I think they pay something like $25k each. This is where the Yankees lose 1/2 dozen pitchers every year.

So next season is Bloom's #5 at the helm. Aside from Rafaela, anyone seeing any help being ready for next season? Sogard at utility infielder. Koss can play everywhere, but got injured this year after hitting the AAA brick wall. Not Bloom's fault. The AA pitchers promoted to AAA pitchers hit brick walls again. Valdez can't field. Maybe Abreu? I'd like to see Abreu in Boston this Fall just to see what he can do up there. Seriously, that's about it. I really can't see the rest of the big names start filtering in until 2025.

So that batch of kids that made up Winckowski, Pivetta, Wong and Verdugo represents the usable haul we got from 2020 Betts, Benny and Workman trades. That channel dried up to just a no-fielding Valdez. Why? Because Bloom could not handle the trades part of his job. We got nothing for a lot of guys that left us at the end of seasons after 2020. That's one HUGE part of the "Tampa Way" that he wrote before coming to Boston. When he did pull that trigger, he got projects and incomplete players.     

[Sea Dog 23]

I think this year's Rule-5 Draft is going to be more about the Minor League phase. It pretty much always is. The MLB phase is mostly pitchers. Last year saw 15 players get nabbed. 13 of them were pitchers. 3 were from us, but we got 2 back.

The Minor League portion is where we need to be careful, though. This means no dumpster diving before the draft. The more we dive, the more we lose. Simple as that. We get to protect up to 38 Rule-5 eligible Minor League players by placing them on the 38-man AAA roster. There are no placement rules for drafting teams in this phase. It's a free-for-all. I think they pay something like $25k each. This is where the Yankees lose 1/2 dozen pitchers every year.

So next season is Bloom's #5 at the helm. Aside from Rafaela, anyone seeing any help being ready for next season? Sogard at utility infielder. Koss can play everywhere, but got injured this year after hitting the AAA brick wall. Not Bloom's fault. The AA pitchers promoted to AAA pitchers hit brick walls again. Valdez can't field. Maybe Abreu? I'd like to see Abreu in Boston this Fall just to see what he can do up there. Seriously, that's about it. I really can't see the rest of the big names start filtering in until 2025.

So that batch of kids that made up Winckowski, Pivetta, Wong and Verdugo represents the usable haul we got from 2020 Betts, Benny and Workman trades. That channel dried up to just a no-fielding Valdez. Why? Because Bloom could not handle the trades part of his job. We got nothing for a lot of guys that left us at the end of seasons after 2020. That's one HUGE part of the "Tampa Way" that he wrote before coming to Boston. When he did pull that trigger, he got projects and incomplete players.   

Thanks, I read about the 38 man AAA group before, but completely forgot about it.  To add to the grief, we got compensation picks in the 4th round for QO's on Eovaldi and JDM.  The returns were a couple of infielders Justin Riemer, who suffered an ACL and will be suspended through much of next year.  Also a high school SS Christian Campbell, who will be in the down in the system for some time at #54 in our prospects.

I also like Abreu.  He has 15 homers at Worcester this year, and some value him as acceptable as an corner outfielder.

[MongoLikeSox]

Thanks, I read about the 38 man AAA group before, but completely forgot about it.  To add to the grief, we got compensation picks in the 4th round for QO's on Eovaldi and JDM.  The returns were a couple of infielders Justin Riemer, who suffered an ACL and will be suspended through much of next year.  Also a high school SS Christian Campbell, who will be in the down in the system for some time at #54 in our prospects.

I also like Abreu.  He has 15 homers at Worcester this year, and some value him as acceptable as an corner outfielder.

Abreau does have a decent enough arm, too. Maybe even for RF. His K-rate has dropped some this year and not afraid of taking a Walk. He's now got 16 HRs in 78 games.

MLB teams' rosters can only expand by one pitcher and one position player under the new rules this year. Gonna be interesting to see how the Sox play that one out.

edit: As if on cue, Abreu hit 3 more HR's today, bringing him up to 20. Dalbec hit a pair bringing him up to 30.