Prospect Bottlenecks - Hoarding?

[MongoLikeSox]

This started last season and can be attributed to any number and combination of Bloom's moves.

There is a major bottleneck beginning to happen with the infield. Two of our best prospects (Mayer and Rafaela) were held back to last season's assignments despite proving they deserved promotion. Why? Three reasons.

#1: There are a lot of players in front of them.
#2: There are too many fringe prospects clogging the system ahead of them.
#3: MLB Depth(insurance).

A fourth reason could be in play. The brass has been deservedly abused this past year. Making our best players one step closer to the big clubs opens them up for more negative fan chatter. Especially if/when Ceddanne finds him some plate discipline. 4-B would be a money thing. Holding back half a year makes the player older when his 6 full seasons of control are over. (See Devers and Xander...)

I'll use Ryan Fitzgerald as a poster boy again. If he recovers from being passed over several times last season and gets back on track with the bat and plays some OK defense, he will need to be the next one added to the 40 and then to the big league Roster. If we have no intention of that, why are we keeping him? It hurts his career and it slows down what's behind him.

I won't even bring up the politics. You tell me David Hamilton and is fringy glove work and one decent month of AA is ahead of Ceddanne just because he's faster? Sure, OK. Thanks for correcting me. I didn't know these things.

[Sea Dog 23]

There was a good possibility the glut in the minors could be cleared by trading our younger guys for a MLB starter.  When the trade for Pirates' Reynolds came up, we had a casual interest as did the Yanks.  But Pittsburg wanted a kings ransom of our best prospects in return, Mayer, Raphaela, others.  The Marlins deal was close, some of our prospects for their SS or a SP.

I think the only trade we made of substance was JTaylor for Mondesi.  Both injured players at the time.  Mongo, as you point out, the glut is still there.  His handling of the  SS position, as well as 2-3 others, is going to cost Bloom his job.  With Bogey, we had a chance to challenge for the playoffs.  The Story, Kike', Mondesi, Chang disasters for MIF are hitting him in the face in the first two series.

[MongoLikeSox]

As Portland was the team to keep an eye on last season with starting pitchers, this year it's the infield. Rafaela, Koss, Lugo and Kavadas along with the next strikeout king and Bloom trade acquisition, Binelas. Rafaela is also gifted in CF, of course, and Koss can play outfield as well. That group there could really impress soon.

Koss, in particular, is overlooked. He's steadily hit at every level and has a huge arm. Koss and Kavadas are in their age 25 and 24 years.

Kavadas might have hit his wall last year in Portland. If he knocks it down and does what he did in A and A+ ball, not clearing a way to Worcester would be criminal. That talk is very premature, though. It's very possible they found his development level and needs three years. TBD

The Portland site doesn't have much of a player roster set. Makes me wonder if a couple of Worcester players move there. Their season started after Worcester's. Worcester's got 5 games in 3 days to play, though, and that's if they get to play today. Buffalo. Brrrr

[longgame]

Reynolds would have been a good pickup, they may have won the last three games as he killed us.  A lot of people are pretty well blocked in the OF with the three they have and Kike.  There aren’t many moves to make there.  Speaking of Kike, he’s stunk it up both in the field and at the plate.  Arroyo hasn’t started to hit yet so hopefully Story comes back sooner than later as we’re at the point where he’d be a big lift over anyone in the middle of the IF.  I liked Casas too but he doesn’t seem to have improved from last year.

There seems to be plenty of opportunity for anyone that can play 1B, 2B or C. 

[MongoLikeSox]

Well, Reynolds will kill us for quite some time. He's signed through 2030 with a club option for 2031. Low money, too. 8 years, $105M with this year and 2 more seasons under arbitration umbrella still. Basically getting his post-arbitration years for $15M per. Not bad. Fair-ish deal, I suppose. Henry's got more ammo to go low and cheap now.

Portland gets a new pitching coach and new pitchers, but same result. 3 starters off to great starts. 3-4 starts each with ERA at or under 1.00. Drohan (12th ranked Red Sox prospect), Van Belle and Sharp. I think Drohan is the only one RedSoxProspects.com thinks much about. Last year it was Bello, Murphy and Walter with Jay Groome thrown in for good measure.

[MongoLikeSox]

This time of year is sort of fun in one aspect. Players getting off to hot starts begin to either fizzle out or show that they're really busting through. The two hot names of the system not named Marcelo Meyer this past Winter were Ceddanne Rafaela and Niko Kavadas. Both are struggling by recent standards, with BA's below .250 and only 3 HRs between them.

The Sox' 4th round pick last year just got promoted after hitting ,338 in Greenville. He went 3-for-6 in his first Portland game. BA at .350 and OBP at .495. The numbers really get interesting. 107 plate appearances resulted in 20 K's, 21 BB's and 28 hits. Doing the math on this, he's hitting .466 on balls in play in 80 official AB's. Thassum good, clean living right there.

On the hot start pitching front, Drohan had his worst outing by far. 5IP, 5H, 3ER, 3BB and 6K's.   

[longgame]

This time of year is sort of fun in one aspect. Players getting off to hot starts begin to either fizzle out or show that they're really busting through. The two hot names of the system not named Marcelo Meyer this past Winter were Ceddanne Rafaela and Niko Kavadas. Both are struggling by recent standards, with BA's below .250 and only 3 HRs between them.

The Sox' 4th round pick last year just got promoted after hitting ,338 in Greenville. He went 3-for-6 in his first Portland game. BA at .350 and OBP at .495. The numbers really get interesting. 107 plate appearances resulted in 20 K's, 21 BB's and 28 hits. Doing the math on this, he's hitting .466 on balls in play in 80 official AB's. Thassum good, clean living right there.

On the hot start pitching front, Drohan had his worst outing by far. 5IP, 5H, 3ER, 3BB and 6K's.   

Saw a highlight of Rafaela making a great throw to get someone at the plate.  The kid has a lot of talent, just needs time to develop consistency.

I'm surprised Mayer is still at Greenville hitting .337 and an OPS of .996

[MongoLikeSox]

Saw a highlight of Rafaela making a great throw to get someone at the plate.  The kid has a lot of talent, just needs time to develop consistency.

I'm surprised Mayer is still at Greenville hitting .337 and an OPS of .996

At some point early last week, Mayer had some sort of shoulder discomfort. Kept him off the field for something like 4-5 games. Came back on Sunday, 0-4 with 4K's. Rafaela started hitting again, though.

[Sea Dog 23]

Now that the Sox have embarked on a nosedive, the disgruntled fan always jumps to the call for "bring up the prospects".  That will happen most seasons in Sept, sure.

But I have this lump in my throat that Bloom & Co. have doon such a sucky job of drafting and developing the farm that we really don't have more than one/maybe two prospects in the system to get any air time.  Please tell me to be patient.  Getting more in line with Fred's call to just clean house, top to bottom.

[longgame]

Now that the Sox have embarked on a nosedive, the disgruntled fan always jumps to the call for "bring up the prospects".  That will happen most seasons in Sept, sure.

But I have this lump in my throat that Bloom & Co. have doon such a sucky job of drafting and developing the farm that we really don't have more than one/maybe two prospects in the system to get any air time.  Please tell me to be patient.  Getting more in line with Fred's call to just clean house, top to bottom.

There may be one or two guys who will make it but it seems like they've got a lot of career minor leaguers.  Can't imagine any of them giving a boost. 

[MongoLikeSox]

Shane Drohan will be making his AAA debut tonight in Worcester. He had a hiccup last week with his worse outing of the year with 5IP, 3R, 5H, 3BB and 6K's. It's been smooth sailing other than that. 1.32 ERA, 0.82 WIP, 36K and 9BB in 34 innings. I hope it's not too soon. I'd have liked to see him get a rebound game. I just looked it up - a 5th inning meltdown including his first HR of the year allowed.

I'm sure it will be on one of the NESN channels tonight. 6:45.  I'll watch a little bit of it before the Hurricanes begin their effort to avenge the Bruins.

[MongoLikeSox]

Another pitching prospect coming into form in Portland. Chih-Jung Liu from Tawain. He's the one that threw a 7-inning no-no a few weeks ago. He's a 24 year old in his 3rd year of US Minor League baseball. First two years not great. First 3 starts this season combined for an over 7.00 ERA. Last 5 games were much better. He had a 0.95 ERA with a .121 BA and WHIP at somehting like .085. The big blemish is the strike percentage at 60%. Walked 13 in 28.1 innings during that stretch, and 21 in 41 innings overall this season.

An easy to root for LHP long past his prospect is kind of gaining some steam in Worcester. One of the depth pieces for our depth pieces. Matt Dermody, a 32 year old with a little bit of MLB experience, mostly for the Jays in 2017. He started 12 games in A ball in 2014 before being sent to the pen. Ended up in Independent ball, Japan and Korea starting in 2020, where he became a starter. He did OK. The Cubs tried him out for a season as a swing man in AAA and did OK with a 3.74 ERA before releasing him. Sox signed him as is their MO. This year he has 7 starts with a 3.64 ERA. The one game he didn't start was a piggy-back off of a James Paxton start.

You'd think he didn't fool any bats with a .271 BA against him, but he does have 44K's in 42 IP. 69% Strike rate with only 6 walks in 42 innings - Oddly enough matching the HR's allowed. If we see him, it will likely be a brief stint with the perfect timing of a Red Sox starter being out for a game or two that lines up with his turn to pitch. DFA after that, and if he does half-way decent, he'll surely be claimed.

[MongoLikeSox]

One more pitcher with a noticeable game last night. A lanky kid down in Salem named Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz. 19 years old, 6'3" and 160lb. Anyhow, last few starts had been walking some guys. Only struck out 13 in 22 innings. So last night he K's 10 in 5 innings with 1BB, 4H and 3ER. Even worse than the 3 runs is that it raised his ERA by 0.62 and is now 2.63.

What a game this is.

[Sea Dog 23]

A bottleneck, maybe.  Duvall is now getting active at Worcester.  Still on the IL, but he will be starting  reps at the DH in AAA....target date is Tuesday, May 30.  The earliest he can come off the the 60 day is June 9.

A Duvall move may put Tapia out of Boston or some other backup like Valdez. Although Duval's overall health may limit his ability to play OF.

[MongoLikeSox]

Some more moves today. Koss to Worcester. He was getting most of the SS starts in Portland before Mayer getting sent to AA. Also, Theo Denlinger going from Portland to Worcester. He's the one we got for Franklin German.