The Sox will not win 80 games and will finish last in the ALE.
Sale, K Jansen, Duvall, Turner, Arroyo and Kike Hernandez will all miss more than 60 games due to injury.
Despite all this Henry will not fire Bloom
Quote from: elktonnick on March 29, 2023, 02:32:13 PM
The Sox will not win 80 games and will finish last in the ALE.
Sale, K Jansen, Duvall, Turner, Arroyo and Kike Hernandez will all miss more than 60 games due to injury.
Despite all this Henry will not fire Bloom
It would not be justifiable to fire an exec if so many key players unable to play. rofl
Quote from: Sea Dog 23 on March 29, 2023, 02:45:24 PM
Quote from: elktonnick on March 29, 2023, 02:32:13 PM
The Sox will not win 80 games and will finish last in the ALE.
Sale, K Jansen, Duvall, Turner, Arroyo and Kike Hernandez will all miss more than 60 games due to injury.
Despite all this Henry will not fire Bloom
It would not be justifiable to fire an exec if so many key players unable to play. rofl
Bloom’s strategy to be sure.
I hope they can sniff .500, but not optimistic.
We had 78 wins last season with a dog-poop bullpen, a disaster of a rotation injury plagued season for the starters and the big-3 stinking to high hell last season with runners in scoring position and a botched up OF. Oh, and team morale that would make an Assistant Crack Whore's job seem like it was worth living for.
That said, I'm thinking 78 wins again thanks to not having to play the ALE as much as last season.
Individual predictions:
Devers over-swings and loses 25 games and plays another 25 just plain too sore from it all.
Duval, Kike, Arroyo and Casas combine for less than 440 games.
We are last or second to last in the league on either side of the SB stats race.
Mondesi either doesn't make it back until June or doesn't make it past August.
Sale, Paxton and Kluber combine for less than 40 starts.
Whitlock and Houck combine for 30 starts.
Pivetta gets 30 starts, but finishes in the bottom 10% of ERA qualifiers.
Verdugo leads the team in BA as only 1 of 3 players to qualify for the batting race.
Devers and Casas are only two above 20 HR.
As far as official blown saves goes, we only finish with 5 less than last season.
Or am I being negative. Actually I am in a wretched mood, but will explain at some other time.
edit: I crossed out the Mondesi prediction. Too early and too soon to take credit. Not even 24 hours. Sheeeesh! Nice trade.
edit: Fixed a typo on # games Duvall Kike, Arroyo and Casas play.
Actually you are being realistic
Mondesi starts the season on the 60 day IL. That's after a spring long rehab, and he still has a lot of work to do. Mondesi is a free agent end of this year. Will he play more than 6 weeks? It is all redundant now, as Story will be available about the same time Mondesi is ready. Meanwhile we could have gotten a healthy, low cost regular like Mongo was plugging.
Also on the 10 day IL are Paxson, Bello and Whitlock.
Maybe we should have a side pool going on Paxton before June 1st, yes or no?
Quote from: MongoLikeSox on March 30, 2023, 01:15:55 PM
Maybe we should have a side pool going on Paxton before June 1st, yes or no?
I'd say at least by Memorial Day, lol. Paxton and Sale must have the same mother. Both could be blown away in a breeze.
Unless there are radical changes and soon, this team of ours will lose at least 100 games this season, They are a total train wreck.
The hitting is there to win games. BUT, the pitching is full of holes. I think Cora threw out the white flag, bringing in the the AAAA guys Kelly, Ort aand Brasier. But there is the reason he has never won an opener in Boston, 0-5.
I ythought they would sign Zack Britain last week with all the injuries. Hhe still does not have a major league cat cher, McGuire is just a utility level guy. But Bloom was busy massaging Ort and Politi. Obviously Bloom has thrown in the towel as well.
Watching this team during Spring Training one thing jumped out. No comraderie. I saw no players talking with each other. It may have been because no one really knew one another. But it was not what I had seen in years past. I will be watching to see if and how the club bonds with each other. I see n oleadership figure currently on the team.. It will be interesting to see who if anyone emerges
Quote from: elktonnick on March 31, 2023, 06:25:42 PM
Watching this team during Spring Training one thing jumped out. No comraderie. I saw no players talking with each other. It may have been because no one really knew one another. But it was not what I had seen in years past. I will be watching to see if and how the club bonds with each other. I see n oleadership figure currently on the team.. It will be interesting to see who if anyone emerges
Maybe Justin Turner, based on some dugout shots. He knows a lot of players from Mets/Dodgers. But like you say, this team is on pins and needles. Joely Rodriguez was a noisy guy in spring training clips. But he is on the shelf, like a lot of Sox these days. IMO Bloom's fatal move was dumping Vazquez, the team loved him, and nothing good happened after that deadline move. Now we are missing an MLB level catcher. Base runners can steal on McGuire at will and his bat is about singles only with some walks.
Quote from: Sea Dog 23 on April 01, 2023, 07:09:21 AM
Quote from: elktonnick on March 31, 2023, 06:25:42 PM
Watching this team during Spring Training one thing jumped out. No comraderie. I saw no players talking with each other. It may have been because no one really knew one another. But it was not what I had seen in years past. I will be watching to see if and how the club bonds with each other. I see n oleadership figure currently on the team.. It will be interesting to see who if anyone emerges
Maybe Justin Turner, based on some dugout shots. He knows a lot of players from Mets/Dodgers. But like you say, this team is on pins and needles. Joely Rodriguez was a noisy guy in spring training clips. But he is on the shelf, like a lot of Sox these days. IMO Bloom's fatal move was dumping Vazquez, the team loved him, and nothing good happened after that deadline move. Now we are missing an MLB level catcher. Base runners can steal on McGuire at will and his bat is about singles only with some walks.
I don't know about leaders, but the comradery might start with Kike and Verdugo the incumbents amongst position players. Maybe Arroyo. Kike's been around enough winning and he knows Turner and Jansen from his LA days so that there might be some potential bit of leadership. I'm just conjecturing. Chris Sale was a big voice on the formerly great Red Sox teams of the past, but those days came and went like a flower's bloom. (see what I did there?)
The Vasquez thing still ticks me off.
Quote from: MongoLikeSox on April 01, 2023, 02:21:47 PM
Quote from: Sea Dog 23 on April 01, 2023, 07:09:21 AM
Quote from: elktonnick on March 31, 2023, 06:25:42 PM
Watching this team during Spring Training one thing jumped out. No comraderie. I saw no players talking with each other. It may have been because no one really knew one another. But it was not what I had seen in years past. I will be watching to see if and how the club bonds with each other. I see n oleadership figure currently on the team.. It will be interesting to see who if anyone emerges
Maybe Justin Turner, based on some dugout shots. He knows a lot of players from Mets/Dodgers. But like you say, this team is on pins and needles. Joely Rodriguez was a noisy guy in spring training clips. But he is on the shelf, like a lot of Sox these days. IMO Bloom's fatal move was dumping Vazquez, the team loved him, and nothing good happened after that deadline move. Now we are missing an MLB level catcher. Base runners can steal on McGuire at will and his bat is about singles only with some walks.
I don't know about leaders, but the comradery might start with Kike and Verdugo the incumbents amongst position players. Maybe Arroyo. Kike's been around enough winning and he knows Turner and Jansen from his LA days so that there might be some potential bit of leadership. I'm just conjecturing. Chris Sale was a big voice on the formerly great Red Sox teams of the past, but those days came and went like a flower's bloom. (see what I did there?)
The Vasquez thing still ticks me off.
McGuire with an ugly stat in Saturday's game. 0 for 8, 0-4 batting and 0-4 in throwing runners out. I don't know if he has a dead arm, or maybe they didn't really work on the new baserunning rules this spring.
The Orioles didn't run yesterday. Could the first two games have been about McGuire? Brutal stuff. Some teams used to gang up on the Plawster towards the end.
Yet another position Bloom didn't think he needed to address and could go with substandard defense even with changes that make it easier to steal bases. Go figure.
Quote from: longgame on April 03, 2023, 08:18:20 AM
Yet another position Bloom didn't think he needed to address and could go with substandard defense even with changes that make it easier to steal bases. Go figure.
The whole organization has an inconsistent streak recently when it comes to Catcher. I know it's slim picking out there, but their depth acquisitions are offense minded. Alfaro and then Ronaldo Hernandez a couple Springs back. I don't know anything about Caleb Hamilton beyond the stats.
As far as McGuire's concerned, I don't think there is any way that Bloom got him to be #1. I think Bloom convinced himself he was going to land Murphy from the A's as part of that bigger series of moves between trade deadline and the off season.
Quote from: MongoLikeSox on April 03, 2023, 11:10:33 AM
Quote from: longgame on April 03, 2023, 08:18:20 AM
Yet another position Bloom didn't think he needed to address and could go with substandard defense even with changes that make it easier to steal bases. Go figure.
The whole organization has an inconsistent streak recently when it comes to Catcher. I know it's slim picking out there, but their depth acquisitions are offense minded. Alfaro and then Ronaldo Hernandez a couple Springs back. I don't know anything about Caleb Hamilton beyond the stats.
As far as McGuire's concerned, I don't think there is any way that Bloom got him to be #1. I think Bloom convinced himself he was going to land Murphy from the A's as part of that bigger series of moves between trade deadline and the off season.
Bloom also came up short bidding for catcher Jacob Stallings in 2022, now with Marlins. As we all said over the winter, he is a day late and a dollar short on all the key players that would be good fits.
If only they had a guy who was a good signal caller and a clutch hitter who played for them for years and was a free agent....
Quote from: longgame on April 04, 2023, 07:49:51 AM
If only they had a guy who was a good signal caller and a clutch hitter who played for them for years and was a free agent....
He's 4 for 9 and nobody's tried to steal off him yet. 3 years, $30M looks rather nice right now. Grrrrr
Quote from: MongoLikeSox on April 04, 2023, 08:30:52 AM
Quote from: longgame on April 04, 2023, 07:49:51 AM
If only they had a guy who was a good signal caller and a clutch hitter who played for them for years and was a free agent....
He's 4 for 9 and nobody's tried to steal off him yet. 3 years, $30M looks rather nice right now. Grrrrr
The total inability to throw out runners is going to be a big issue this year.
Quote from: longgame on April 05, 2023, 08:18:33 AM
Quote from: MongoLikeSox on April 04, 2023, 08:30:52 AM
Quote from: longgame on April 04, 2023, 07:49:51 AM
If only they had a guy who was a good signal caller and a clutch hitter who played for them for years and was a free agent....
He's 4 for 9 and nobody's tried to steal off him yet. 3 years, $30M looks rather nice right now. Grrrrr
The total inability to throw out runners is going to be a big issue this year.
The good catchers have the arm and peripheral vision to throw behind the runner on 1st to make sure the runner keeps that in his head. i.e. Realmuto, Contreras, also Vaz.
I just looked up McGuire's career CS numbers. Limited action, of course, but since 2018:
SB - CS - CS%
2018 13 - 2 - 13%
2019 14 - 5 - 26%
2020 4 - 4 - 50%
2021 20 - 11 - 36%
2022 32 - 16 - 33% (Note Vasquez had 37SB and 16CS for the Sox in 653 innings. McGuire caught 658 total innings.)
2023 12 - 0 - 0%
Career 95 - 38 - 28.5%
Obviously so many things factor in to that one including pitchers, baserunner fear of catcher, game use, limited innings, etc. His one year that he had a good load of innings under his belt was last year and it was within reason. I think I only saw 2 od his throws this year and I think one was something awful.
It could be that the Orioles were on to the Red Sox strategy for holding runners on with this new clock & throws over limitation thing. Perhaps they suspected his throwing arm was tweeked somehow.
So who knows? The only thing I do know is that I hope it doesn't stay like this for McGuire and for us.
The first critical injury for Sox has happened, apparently. For starters Sox have put Dalbec on the plane to Tampa. He would be a backup at SS and a bench piece. Kike' is the next CF, and that may be some good news, if you can call all that good news, with all the errors he's making at SS.
"Duvall suffered a distal radius fracture. Cora says they don’t know if he’ll need surgery or what the timetable is yet. Dalbec will be activated. Hernandez is leading off and playing short today w/ Refsnyder in CF Cora said there will be movement in lineup in days to come."
In layman's terms distal radius fracture means a broken wrist. If it's a clean break/crack, early guestimates say 2.5 to 3 months away.
Quote from: Sea Dog 23 on April 10, 2023, 03:56:49 PM
"Duvall suffered a distal radius fracture. Cora says they don’t know if he’ll need surgery or what the timetable is yet. Dalbec will be activated. Hernandez is leading off and playing short today w/ Refsnyder in CF Cora said there will be movement in lineup in days to come."
In layman's terms distal radius fracture means a broken wrist. If it's a clean break/crack, early guestimates say 2.5 to 3 months away.
For a four game series coming up against the unbeaten Rays this is not what we needed, was it?????
One of the truisms of baseball is that a player once injured is more likely to be repeatedly placed on the injured list than a player who has never been injured.. This is period on the IL.the risk you run when you staff your club with injury prone players. Perfectly predictable. Duvall will not be the last Sox player to head for an extended period on the injured list.
I broke my wrist in college and was in a cast for months. Let's hope that's not the case here.
More injuries cropping up. Last night it was Zach Kelly. Listed as a serious injury to his elbow. He had a UCL on his elbow three years ago. Pitching is our weakest component. Kelly is a long man. But all those pen guys are going to be overworked with the starters only doing 5 innings on a good night.
Bloom had the opportunity to add a couple good rotation guys, but he thought aging starters in Sale and Kluber passed the smell test. That will come to be Bloom's Waterloo, or should in most other organizations. The young guys Whitlock and Bello will have to perform well if we are to come out of the tailspin,
Right now I am having trouble finding one thing Bloom has done right this past year other than signing Devers.
It's really amazing how this guy can make one bad move after another. We have all watched it and we are getting the results that anyone would expect from the moves he has made. I'm just amazed that we can't even field a major league lineup in week 2 and guys of course are dropping like flies. Just so discouraging. We all knew they didn't look good on paper but I was trying to be as hopeful or optimistic as possible. Then they took the field.
Even Peter Abraham of Globe admits this a team of spare parts and aging veterans.
Tomase piece in today's NBC sports Boston is a validation of what everyone here has been posting over the past 6 months.
There's a good interview with Michael Wacha today on masslive.com. Wacha talks about what Boston lost losing Bogaerts. And also what Sox lost not getting a deal done with Wacha, their best pitcher in 2022, and he did want to return to the Sox. Watching the Mets-Padres game in NY this week, Bogey knocked in all the runs for SD in that game. He put a stamp on that game that the Mets could not recover from. Seems to me like Bloom tried his best to cut the head off the animal this year, for whatever reason that was important.
Wacha said Bogaerts had already become a leader for the Padres early in the season.
“He just goes about his business the right way,†the righty said. “If you watch from a distance, he’s doing everything the right way. He’s putting in his work. It shows in the field whenever he goes out there and plays. He’s one of the leaders of this team and we go to him if we need something.â€
This was a house cleaning filled with lies, truth stretching and thinly veiled spins. And Kennedy's comments 3 months ago about the biggest mistake in "trying" to retain XB? (I'm paraphrasing) We should have not told the fans that was such a high priority as often as we did.
A house cleaning should not exist without including Kennedy.
The Wacha scenario was an absolute ghost of a story in the media. It wasn't even known by national media what his agent was pushing for, and then it took a creative contract offer from San Diego at the last minute to get it somewhat done. It was not a full guaranty like with the deal Eovaldi got. There's no way Wacha signs such a deal in November/December/January. Soooo, as much as I am loathe to defend the Bloom-led ding-dong patrol, I cannot fault them for losing Wacha. I can't fault Wacha for wanting multi-year commitment.
On the pre-game show today (Sunday) they expect Story to begin swinging a bat in nine days. There probably is still a long way before he can start throwing a baseball. They project him to play about two months of the season.
My Won-Loss-Tie record is an awful 1-6-3 from my predictions. The three ties are too early to be determined, but the losses look safely lost.
I really hope my 78 win prediction stays in the loss column. We're on pace for 86 Wins. I'm not sure we'll get there, but I really hope we're not bad enough the next 2-1/2 months to go 28-40 that it would take to land on 78 wins. Just a couple of weeks before the trade deadline. Implosion? Improvements? Nothing, or next to it?
How did you guys do on your predictions?