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Buyers or Sellers?

Started by MongoLikeSox, June 15, 2023, 09:05:30 AM

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MongoLikeSox

Sea Dog brought this up twice recently. I thought it'd be good for a thread. We all know the overall situation and the smaller positional situations.

What's your take. Are we Buyers? Sellers? Whom? When? What would it take to compete? Who are your untouchable pieces in the minors? All kinds of possibilities, especially with Bloom in charge.

elktonnick

Bloom will buy from Dollar General and Goodwill! And sell for prospects.

longgame

I'll deflect to you on our minor league guys, you follow them a lot closer than I although you have to think Dalbec since they haven't brought him up no matter how poorly Casas plays.  I've seen everyone from Kenley to Martin, maybe Turner or Kike (although Cora loves the guy) mentioned.  Duval is on a cheap one year contract so that's an easy one. They probably couldn't move Kluber or Pivetta unless they ate salary.  Frankly other than Yoshida and Devers, maybe Verdugo, and Whitlock and Bello, everyone else is probably expendable.  Then we can have another last place team next year too while paying for those guys to play elsewhere and limiting our ability to pay professionals.

SeaBeachFred

Nothing of value will accrue until Chaim Bloom and Bora BoraCora are jettisoned once and for all from the Red Sox roster.  Cora plays favorites, has never come out cleanly and admitted that he cheated and that his pathetic ST regimen in 2019 put the team on the road to endless heartache and failure from that point on.  Even the 2021 revival was doomed to fail since they didn't have enough smarts to keep some of the guys they refused to resign or traded them away for trash like Bradley and others.  As for Bloom, he has been an unmitigated disaster from every point on view and the longer he stays  the worse it will be for us.  Don't be surprised that he trades away prospects who become stars and retains some that will be some of the biggest duds in Red Sox annals.  The man just does not know talent and how to build a team.  Until that is done this topic is not worth much to any of us, though I would say that Mayer and Yorke and a couple of others are absolute keepers, so someone should beat that into Bloom's alleged brain.

MongoLikeSox

As far as Dalbec is concerned, the one area that has eluded him is the swing and miss. He's whiffing at a 40% K-Rate. My no-trade list runs deeper than the popular Mayer, Rafaela, Bleis, Yorke group until we have a team that can make a major push.

My buy and sell right now is a mixed bag. Starting with buy. On August 2nd, we could have a starting lineup of Wong, Casas, Arroyo, Devers, Story, Yoshida, Duvall/Kike, Verdugo and Turner(DH). Reyes, Duran, Refsnyder and McGuire on the bench. It's a solid group. Starters Paxton, Houck, Whitlock, Bello, Crawford/Sale(9th). If Crawford stretches out more and Houck's progress to that end continues, it's a solid and somewhat young group. A couple of big ifs, though. We'll know more in a month. BP is Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Bernardino and then a huge crop of question marks due to performance and injury issues.

Does that look like a major playoff push in the making, or a contender for a near bottom Wildcard seed spot? We have a good solid month to figure that out. 

The one player that's not being set up to play any part of this is Rafaela. I think the Sox are playing control years games on this. Maybe they're afraid of the heat if he should do well in AAA. I say promote him now and see what he has in AAA for 5-6 weeks before the trade deadline. Perhaps he makes Duvall and Kike more expendable than they are. If anything else, the more years he can play in Boston in his prime youth, the better.

MongoLikeSox

Rafaela appeared in a NESN article I found linked to from the SosProspects.com site. Not sure what kind of little word games O Halleran is playing here, but Fafaela is "Close to being ready" for his promotion to AAA. I hope it happens soon for any chance of him being a factor in what happens this year.

Sea Dog 23

There's an article up today that the Sox could be contemplating a deal at the deadline for a rotation guy.It's written by Jim Bowden, who is less than accurate with things, but it was published on Inside the Red Sox site.  The name he bounced was Shane Bieber.  News that he COULD BE had at a more favorable price for Boston.

Also news now that Houck suffered more than a "contusion" the other night.  It is now listed as a "facial fracture".  Sox are starting to look really thin for pitching.  Which poses a question for Paxton, who is now idle on six days rest, but scheduled to work against Twins tonight.

SeaBeachFred

I read an article on my computer today from some baseball source who insists there has and is some real dissension between Alex Cora and Chaim Bloom.  As for its accuracy I don't know where the author got his information from but it sort of takes away the notion I had that these two guys were thicker than thieves and working in tandem with some of their miserable moves personnel wise the past couple of years.  It further stated that Bloom may be shown the exit to unemployment BEFORE  the trading deadline since some members of the Red Sox top honchos do NOT want this guy to be in charge of any more trades that might make the team look even worse that it has been since the start of the '22 season.  Well all you have to do is look at the Hunter Renfroe trade for that miserable Jackie Bradley Jr. and his 163 average in 2021` and that may all you need to know, but there have been some that could actually compare to that pathetic one.

Renfroe is still hitting for power, demonstrating a powerful throwing arm and solid leadership for the Angels while JBJ is not out of baseball.  Oh, I now get it.  The front office wants Bloom out because they fear he may actually sign Bradley again since he is now out of baseball after being jettisoned by the Royals with a 143 average.  Well I wouldn't trust Bloom either.  Would any of you????

elktonnick

Fred, old friend, my sister who lives in Boston and who feels about Cora as you and I, told me a couple of weeks ago that there was a lot of talk that Cora and Bloom were having issues with each other.  Precisely what the source of disagreement was unclear
  Some speculated it was about the quality of ballplayer Bloom was signing others about micromanagement of the lineup from above.

MongoLikeSox

#9
Today should be a big day for the Red Sox. Houck and the Red Sox find find out if surgery is in store, and maybe the down time either way it works out. Gotta feel bad for the kid. I imagine he wants to get out there ASAP.

My wife suggested a Jaylen Brown(Celtics) mask. :)   

At any rate, if Houck is out long-term, it could change what we do. Pitching is always an iffy situation. Defense seems like it stabilized. Offense seems like it's not pressing as much, but still room to go.

We can win out the road trip and still not know. It's the two weeks after that. Marlins, Blue Jays and Rangers followed by the A's heading into the All Star break. If we play over 500 ball against the good clubs and demolish the Twins, White Sox and A's, I might be active in on buying. A lot needs to happen, though, and it starts with Houck's situation. For me, anyway.

MongoLikeSox

Well we screwed the pooch on the road trip and started this tough stretch with a low point in the season type of blow-out game. We don't really decide to buy or sell right now due simply to limited dance partners. Most teams are still assessing their situations and getting ready for the draft. I think we will end up in a position where we should be sellers in a traditional sense.

On the opposite end, I think there is no way we should be buyers. This is not a championship caliber team. Period. It never was and we all knew it this past Winter. We all know why it happened. My real objection to becoming a buyer this season is that it puts 2025 and beyond at risk. I believe that to be the case even if we only trade away fringe prospects. Those fringe prospects are what's going to get us that extra professional RH bat or that 2nd LHP BP guy that we'll need 2 years from now.   

Last season should have been year #1 that we bit the bullet. We screwed it up, and we all know why and how. It's obvious. 

Only problem with being sellers is that we are kind of short on inventory for big trade deadline deals. We've got one huge impact SP rental with Paxton if he can stay healthy for a few more starts. We've got a nice Closer who's made the late career and pitch clock  adjustments for now. We may get a decent return if we eat some of that $$$. Martin's behind Jansen for anyone hunting a professional late inning guy. Duval and Turner can change any line-up to some extent. A team might even want Kike for bench depth.

Additionally, this is the max value time for Verdugo if we have indeed become Tampa North. He's playing well, hitting even better and has a full year of control left. Pivetta fits into this category, too, if he continues to do well in the BP. It almost seems like the plan the way Cora is cherry picking spots for him. Arroyo fits too, though to a lesser extent due to his injury history.

A side deal for a small market team to try to improve a bad 3B situation would be Dalbec. We might get a couple of 1-tool Bloomer Boy Specials out of it.

We could get lucky and have Joely and/or Bleier healed and figured it all out in time to make a few nice appearances before the deadline. Maybe a team needing anything close to breathing level back end guys could look for Ort and Garza types, but there will be limited return.


longgame

Certainly as of today they have to be penciled in as sellers.  But I can see them saying "we're almost in the hunt for a WC spot" and double down.  The problem is they can't figure out how to build a lineup.  I like Verdugo and think an outfield built around him and Yoshida could be good.  Extend Verdugo before he puts up even more numbers and you've locked in your RF and LF for a few years.  Devers is here for the rest of his career so is 3B his place or can he DH?  I can't see him moving in the field and the fielding at 3B has been too undependable.  Signs he improves then signs he's regressed.  If he's DH, then don't sign any more aging DH types because you want him in the lineup every day.  Who else is a keeper on the offensive side?  I can't think of anyone.  Casas projects at best to be mediocre.  Duran may be a 4th OF.  Duvall appears to be a rental.  I simply don't think Hernandez adds anything and was not impressed with Story.  Wong may be okay at catcher but not someone to necessarily build around.  The pitching just always seems to be a mess between injuries and lack of performance.  Signing old guys is not a viable strategy.  Fortunately we have Bello and Whitlock, but let's get a bona fide ace.  I'm not impressed with Jansen, runs cold at times, but we could do worse.  Bullpen arms always have to be sorted out so that's a whole other story. But if we're starting a game with Ort then that signifies a serious lack of talent in that group.

elktonnick

Quote from: longgame on June 28, 2023, 11:18:41 AM
Certainly as of today they have to be penciled in as sellers.  But I can see them saying "we're almost in the hunt for a WC spot" and double down.  The problem is they can't figure out how to build a lineup.  I like Verdugo and think an outfield built around him and Yoshida could be good.  Extend Verdugo before he puts up even more numbers and you've locked in your RF and LF for a few years.  Devers is here for the rest of his career so is 3B his place or can he DH?  I can't see him moving in the field and the fielding at 3B has been too undependable.  Signs he improves then signs he's regressed.  If he's DH, then don't sign any more aging DH types because you want him in the lineup every day.  Who else is a keeper on the offensive side?  I can't think of anyone.  Casas projects at best to be mediocre.  Duran may be a 4th OF.  Duvall appears to be a rental.  I simply don't think Hernandez adds anything and was not impressed with Story.  Wong may be okay at catcher but not someone to necessarily build around.  The pitching just always seems to be a mess between injuries and lack of performance.  Signing old guys is not a viable strategy.  Fortunately we have Bello and Whitlock, but let's get a bona fide ace.  I'm not impressed with Jansen, runs cold at times, but we could do worse.  Bullpen arms always have to be sorted out so that's a whole other story. But if we're starting a game with Ort then that signifies a serious lack of talent in that group.
Excellent summary of the current situation.  I would also stress that the persistent mental errors and lapses in basic fundamentals is very troubling.  Personally I think the organization is lost.  They became so data driven they lost the culture of playing solid baseball.  If I had my way I would clean house,coaches manager and most of the fo personnel.  They need a new culture, one that defeats mediocrity.

SeaBeachFred

#13
No need for me to comment in any way to the points you and Ted made because I couldn't do better if I tried.  You two laid out in stark bold statements.  We are a team that cannot pitch, cannot field, cannot hit consistently  and is led by a baseball ops director who is a mismatch when it comes to knowing how to run a ball club.  It's all there for the rest of our colleagues to digest what you two wrote because it says it all.  If last night's "homecoming" didn't hit reality for the team square in the face we had better watch out before this board becomes a pollyanna copycat of some other boards who have gone the way of the unicorn.  AND WE MUST NOT  UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES EVEN THINK OF TRADING REAL TOP NOTCH PR OSPECTS LIKE MAYER, YORKE, AND A FEW OF THE OTHERS  WHO ARE MAKING THEIR WAY UP THE LADDER AND NOW ARE IN DOUBLE AA.

MongoLikeSox

Quote from: elktonnick on June 28, 2023, 11:51:43 AM
.......Personally I think the organization is lost.  They became so data driven they lost the culture of playing solid baseball. If I had my way I would clean house,coaches manager and most of the fo personnel.  They need a new culture, one that defeats mediocrity.
I agree with you on just about everything except them being lost. They are not lost. They are just plain wrong. This team and the minor league system is by design.

The folks in charge now under Blooms direction were the ones that leaked disgruntlement out to the press about Dombrowski and his closest advisors working in Autonomy. Well, yeah!!! Imagine a knowledgeable baseball man being bombarded with these sorts of nonsensical notions that have become the mantra of this version of the Red Sox organization? I wouldn't listen to them, either.

However, Trader Joe ultimately lost and they turned the keys over to this group with a perfect fit leader in Chaim Bloom. The rest is history. This needs dismantling and replaced with baseball people before we ruin the assets we have.