Bosox Board

Quote from: Sea Dog 23 on November 28, 2023, 09:40:43 AM

Quote from: longgame on November 28, 2023, 09:22:39 AM

There are a lot of pitchers in the FA market and there's already some movement.  It looks like everyone is in on Yamamoto so that's a total wild card, so will teams want to jump before that deal sets a market or will agents want to wait for the same?  What's the Sox's plan if they don't get him?  Why give up a bunch of guys for Cease when you can get Snell or Montgomery for just money?  I saw enough of E-Rod and we all know the story - good stuff, doesn't keep his head in it. I don't see the Sox fixing that. There are also guys down the list, like Wacha, that wouldn't be a bad addition.

It looks like the FA market has gone upside down.  It used to be they went for the money.  Now free-agents seem to be looking for incidentals along with the money.  Snell was quoted he wanted to stay on the West coast, near his home in Seattle.  Yamamotto wants a team with one of his home town Japan All-star boys.  Montgomery might like to stay near his wife, who now works in Boston.  Last year we lost out on Dansby Swanson, because his wife played on a team in Chicago. 

I'm concerned whether playing in Boston has become toxic, (because of Cora or the owners??).  We might end up over-paying for players, or worse settling on what's left near the bottom of the barrel.  Sure hope I'

m wrong on all that.

I think you raise a valid point.  I can not for the life of me think any pitcher would want to pitch for Cora.  Breslow has his work cut.

I'm beginning to smell a dumpster and a few of the morons running our organization are heading in that direction with knife and fork to sample the dredge of puke lying in there.

Merrifield is a no-brainer to me.  He's a free agent so you don't give up anything.  He's a proven veteran.  We get much needed infield defense with him and Story side by side.  Merrifield at 2B allows Story to cover more to his right which helps Devers.  Go out and do this and move on to the next problem.

I didn't even think of the veteran aspect - having Merrifield in Casas's right ear for a year might be a good thing?

There are a lot of pitchers in the FA market and there's already some movement.  It looks like everyone is in on Yamamoto so that's a total wild card, so will teams want to jump before that deal sets a market or will agents want to wait for the same?  What's the Sox's plan if they don't get him?  Why give up a bunch of guys for Cease when you can get Snell or Montgomery for just money?  I saw enough of E-Rod and we all know the story - good stuff, doesn't keep his head in it. I don't see the Sox fixing that. There are also guys down the list, like Wacha, that wouldn't be a bad addition.

Mongo, I think there is value in the Cease deal,  >IF<  you look at the competition for him.  Dodgers and Braves are also in the Cease talks this week, and they probably know pitching better than most pitching scouts in their league.  As far as the Sox, I don't think anybody can rank their rating system yet, as they're just getting started with several new guys at the top, but their scouting should have a good book on chicagoSox.  Maybe they all see that he is fixable and a return of Cease in 2022 when he was second in the Cy Young that year 14-8 and 2.2 era.  Now if they can sub Miedroth for Yorke in the trade hit, that may look like a better swap.
I saw some day/night splits on Cease which are telling
Cease daytime: 3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Cease night: 5.31 ERA, 1.53 WHIP
A caveat, he is a Boras client, so extending him after year three could be painful.

All good points. One thing I don't know is pitching mechanics and such. If the Dodgers and Braves are willing to give up big pieces, perhaps he is a better candidate for a bounce-back year than I fear.

The Day-Night splits look like the opposite of Bello's Summer last season.

I think Cora is the bigger problem with a possible ERod return than the Red Sox brass not trying to sign him after 2021. We all remember ERod's last Fenway moment as glorious until Cora showed him up for talking smack back to Correa. Tsk tsk.

If this trade happens, I hope they're right. As presented, this has a decent chance to have some bad effects on the team now and in future years without improving them all that much next year. Which Cease we get ultimately decides if it's worth the price. It kills Yoshida chances for AB's at DH(and us getting better OF defense). The money spent on Jiminez could be spent elsewhere. We'd be 2-3 years away without a strong 2-way 2B prospect being ready unless Meidroth rebounds and/or Bonaci gets out from under that domestic Restricted list thing he's on now. I have not even brought up Duran.

Some additional food for thought. Take away just one year and Dylan Cease is in the low 30's QS% percentage. His Quality Start percentages were 21%, 33%, 31%, 50% and 36%. Inning depth was one of our biggest starting pitching problems last year. Inning depth into games. Bello (54%), Paxton (42%), Pivetta (31%), Sale(30%), Houck (24%) and Crawford(17%) are the incumbents SP. Pivetta and Sale each fell one start shy of Cease's 36% last year, which was his second best year to that end.

Quote from: Sea Dog 23 on November 27, 2023, 09:37:53 AM

Rob Bradford is saying the Sox are in talks this week to trade for ChiSox Dylan Cease and OF/DH Eloy Jiminez.  It will hurt some, but not too damaging.  Duran, Yorke and P Luis Perales.

"The Red Sox need no-doubt-about-it top of the rotation starters. At least one, anyway. That's why Dylan Cease's name has come up," Brad ford said Cease, it would seem, is available in a trade from the White Sox for the right price. The problem for teams drooling over the 27-year-old is that price figures to be fairly steep. While Cease's numbers in 2023 took a turn for the worse (4.58 ERA in 32 starts) after finishing second in the American League Cy Young Award balloting, there were enough signs that the righty is a pitcher a rotation can be built around.

Jiminez as a rookie, his line .274 /.331/.453/.784   19 HR 68 RBI., bats RH, 27 yo.

I hate this. I hope it does not happen.
I do not view Dylan Cease as a "no-doubt-about-it" starter. Cease took too far of a slide last year. He was still hitable even in his good months. His two years before that had 3.91 and 4.0x ERAs. To me, he had a flash in the pan season. His velo dropped a tick, too.
Eloy Jiminez has been around a few years. Hit 31 HRs as a rookie in 2019. He's owed $48.8M over the next 3 years, but does have a pair of $3M buyouts for 2025 and 2026. No idea how he is on defense, but he's 0 for 0 in SB over 430+ games. 

So, IF Dylan Cease is a legit front line pitcher and we got him for 2 years, sure. Go for it. But I'm not seeing it.

Mongo, I think there is value in the Cease deal,  >IF<  you look at the competition for him.  Dodgers and Braves are also in the Cease talks this week, and they probably know pitching better than most pitching scouts in their league.  As far as the Sox, I don't think anybody can rank their rating system yet, as they're just getting started with several new guys at the top, but their scouting should have a good book on chicagoSox.  Maybe they all see that he is fixable and a return of Cease in 2022 when he was second in the Cy Young that year 14-8 and 2.2 era.  Now if they can sub Miedroth for Yorke in the trade hit, that may look like a better swap.
I saw some day/night splits on Cease which are telling
Cease daytime: 3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Cease night: 5.31 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

Baseball Trade Values indicate the White Sox would  approve the trade to include
Yorke
Schreiber
Perales
Valdez
Drohan

A caveat, he is a Boras client, so extending him after year three could be painful.