Free Agency this off-season

[MongoLikeSox]

The Sox signed a Minor League FA. He's not a cast-off. He elected Minor League Free Agency. A stipulation that (per CBA/MILB agreement) allows Minor League players who have played a minimum number of years to allow them freedom to move on if they so choose. Designed to allow a blocked player to seek a better situation before it's too late, hopefully.

Jorge Benitez, 24 years old relief pitcher who pitched 2.14 ERA, 40 games and 59 innings. His big problem according to the stats is BB, sitting at 5.9(!!!) per 9IP with a 11.3 K/9IP and a 1.339 WHIP. Don't know for sure, but 'dems look like power pitcher numbers to me. If Breslow and company and fix him, great. If not, it cost nothing to try 'cept maybe a spot on the 38-man AAA Minor League roster to be protected in the Rule-5 draft.   

[Sea Dog 23]

The Sox signed a Minor League FA. He's not a cast-off. He elected Minor League Free Agency. A stipulation that (per CBA/MILB agreement) allows Minor League players who have played a minimum number of years to allow them freedom to move on if they so choose. Designed to allow a blocked player to seek a better situation before it's too late, hopefully.

Jorge Benitez, 24 years old relief pitcher who pitched 2.14 ERA, 40 games and 59 innings. His big problem according to the stats is BB, sitting at 5.9(!!!) per 9IP with a 11.3 K/9IP and a 1.339 WHIP. Don't know for sure, but 'dems look like power pitcher numbers to me. If Breslow and company and fix him, great. If not, it cost nothing to try 'cept maybe a spot on the 38-man AAA Minor League roster to be protected in the Rule-5 draft.

Mr. Benitez may have come to the right place.  THe doctors of curing your ills , Breslow and Bailey, are here to help. haha.

[Sea Dog 23]

Ken Rosenthal gave some interesting projections on team spending.  He thinks NYY will be controlled this year and mindful of their payroll,  the Rangers will limit themselves, and the Padres have payroll issues and become only active in the trade market over dealing with FA's.  Who knows, the scribes have probably exhaused all their permutations and combinations before December.

[MongoLikeSox]

Ken Rosenthal gave some interesting projections on team spending.  He thinks NYY will be controlled this year and mindful of their payroll,  the Rangers will limit themselves, and the Padres have payroll issues and become only active in the trade market over dealing with FA's.  Who knows, the scribes have probably exhaused all their permutations and combinations before December.

Have the Yankees gone nuts since Hal and Hank assumed the team ownership after George stepped back and eventually passed away? They've made some big signings, but have they done the whole team payroll thing of being $50M - $75M over threshold thing recently? Seems like the Yanks and Sox have both cooled their jets in the past 10-15 years. Sort of becoming old.

Rosenthal had an interesting article on the Ohtani brand value. What he means outside the lines. Several big teams out there with lots going on around the ballpark and beyond. The Sox with their other owned teams. The Cubs, Giants, Mets, Toronto, 'Sox and Blue Jays all being mentioned as being at various phases of building out the area surrounding their stadiums to include other entertainment and/or destination type attractions. That doesn't even touch the teams' international benefits with merch and all. His point being is that the return on investment will come back to the team that signs him in non-baseball manner beyond what we've seen before. This is the ultimate Scott Boras model sans Scott Boras.

Rosenthal did offer up one one thought inspiring statistic. The Angels drew an average of just 163 more fans out to the park on the days Ohtani pitched. Makes sense, of course, as you'll get to see him almost every day instead of once a week. Plus the big team ace day is becoming quaint. That pitcher throwing an 8-inning gem scenario seems to be a romance of days gone by. 

[longgame]

The Braves have a whole entertainment district around their ballpark. Funny thing is they started it I believe when they were owned by Liberty Media who owns Formula One among other properties. But they make their bones on the field.  Clearly thought Ohtani leverages a lot of merchandise sales and promotional opportunities across an owners assets.

[MongoLikeSox]

A potential trade partner? They've supposedly got the young pitching we desire and we have low cost alternatives to two of their now vacant positions.

The Mariners and Braves had a 5-player swap that cleared room in their OF. Makes me wonder if they might end up being a trade candidate for the Red Sox extra OF'er. Speculation on MLB-dot-com is more about the bigger names, though.

Seattle has also made room at 3B by trading Eugenio Suarez last month. That inspires thoughts of a potential Matt Chapman landing spot. A much less expensive alternative is Bobby Dalbec. Dalbec would actually be a better 3B AND offensive player than Suarez. Suarez K'd 214 times in 598 AB's while hitting .214 with 22HR's and 96 RBI. 36% K-rate.

[Sea Dog 23]

So the trade partner is the Yanks? WTH.  Verdugo for P Greg Weissert, several BP appearances in NY this year, and Richard Fitts, a AA pitcher, plus one other arm who was just drafted in '23. No Gleyber.  Word that Fitts  could rank as NYY #11 prospect.  We must be thinking Abreu is the answer in RF.  Crazy stuff.
 
So you give up a lefty OF and go for a righty?  Morosi says we're talking to Lourdes Guriel.  Can he defend?  He was at 0.6 dwar last year, after some weak years.  He has hit .320/.356/.456  when hitting at Fenway.  I don't see a reunion with Duvall or Turner if we're looking at right bats.  Some interest in Garver (Rangers) as a righty bat.

[MongoLikeSox]

So the trade partner is the Yanks? WTH.  Verdugo for P Greg Weissert, several BP appearances in NY this year, and Richard Fitts, a AA pitcher, plus one other arm who was just drafted in '23. No Gleyber.  Word that Fitts  could rank as NYY #11 prospect.  We must be thinking Abreu is the answer in RF.  Crazy stuff.
 
So you give up a lefty OF and go for a righty?  Morosi says we're talking to Lourdes Guriel.  Can he defend?  He was at 0.6 dwar last year, after some weak years.  He has hit .320/.356/.456  when hitting at Fenway.  I don't see a reunion with Duvall or Turner if we're looking at right bats.  Some interest in Garver (Rangers) as a righty bat.

This might work out for us. We were not going to get a whole lot for one year control of Verdugo. Especially after Cora's public issues with him. Watch for a big year from Verdugo as he's in a park where his turning on a grooved pitch will reward him more often.

I despised the notion of Gleyber Torres playing defense for us. I'd have given him a DH spot no probs, though. He would have just been a one year guy. 

I absolutely love the idea of Abreu in RF. Got some speed, has an arm and has the ability to make adjustments in his approach as needed throughout his 5 years in the Minors. Makes CF wide open once Rafaela is open for business. In the mean time, let's hope Duran's improvement continues. (Edit:I hear Gurriell is a more than capable OF'er. If so, I'd be for that signing if it happens.)

The relief pitcher has an option left. I doubt he was the real prize. He'll be on the 40-man roster. His two MLB stints suggests he's not currently a bust so far, but not great, either. 28 years old.

Fitts was their #11 prospect and now our #10. Mid-90's cheese and a good slider. The MLB Scouting report says both pitches have potential of being "plus pitches". Not a huge K-rate, but throws strikes. Looking at his stats suggests he figured something out in A-ball and has been sub 4.00 ERA since while climbing to a complete AA season. 2 years before we have to protect him. You'd think he was on track to start next season in AAA. TBD. 

The 3rd guy didn't even pitch for the Yanks system after being drafted last year. No idea why yet.

[longgame]

Moving Verdugo also freed up a lot of cash to help sign other guys.

[MongoLikeSox]

Ohtani - 10 years, $700M. Holy Smokes! A lot of deferred money, which is a smart move on at least two counts. Still, that's just an un-fathomable number to chew on. Yakamoto will be affected from this.

The Fallout next year for the Juan Soto Circus, V3. Free agent for his age 26 season. He's going to blow by Judge's $360M.

It goes to show, that somewhere, somehow, some team is going to bust the bank for the best of the best. Well, maybe the most desirable. Right now, that might be Yakamoto. His contract might end up being north of $300M after some were guessing up to around $200M.

So I ask, before we learn of Yakamoto's intent - What is your limit on Yakamoto if you were the 'Sox brass?

[longgame]

Interesting numbers I saw - Henry bought the Sox 20 years ago or so for $660M, less than what the Dodgers are paying for 10 years of Ohtani.

Yamamoto is still unproven in MLB.  Maybe the Mets will pay him more than someone like Cole.

[MongoLikeSox]

Nobody offered up a number for Yakamoto. I think he is going to get something along the line of 8 years, $275M. Just a guess based on watching the media offer up estimates and watching the biggest targets blow past those numbers by 20% or more. Happened just last week with Ohtani.

The decision on what to offer cannot be hedged. The Red Sox will not be successful thinking of a can't suggest $175M for 7 years as being reasonable when there will be a team that will not use size and no MLB experience against him. The offer has to be made with what you think you will get out of him. Risk of injury due to size or his  lack of MLB experience determines IF you offer him a contract. That's the market. Roll the bones or don't. The bet is the same. 

So two scenarios to consider for transitioning Japanese Pro League pitchers.

The bad scenario.
What they can do is look at Dice-K, who was 26 when he made is 'Sox debut. He had just come off his best two seasons when he was posted. Bombed with a 4.40 ERA, which was not a massively bad number as it is these days. Came back with a 2.90 ERA before it went to hell for the last 4 seasons in Boston. Scary stuff. Cost the 'Sox $120M including posting, IIRC. 

The Good Scenario.
Masahiro Tanuka. The Yankees snagged him up at about the same age as Yakamoto. 7 years, $155M in 2014. He was a big boy at 6-3" compared to Yakamoto's 5-10". Even then, his last three seasons got a little fringy with the arm and he ended up in the mid 4's ERA twice. The 4 seasons in Japan before signing with the Yankees were like Yakamoto. A few years sub 2.00 ERAs with a K/9IP just shy of Yakamoto.

In either case, it looks like the ERA will likely take a hit if we can identify a trend with this. Note that Tanaka was 1-1/2 runs higher than it was in Japan. When he went back, his ERA dropped 1/2 a run or so. Senga's ERA wnt up a run from the previous season, but far less of a drop from the few previous years. 

I'm playing with house money sitting back with two dogs and a cat on an easy chair, so my opinion is worthless. BUT, if you're gonna offer some jerk $225M over 7 years who is already on the decline and you know is going to bring a crappy, ring-leader attitude with him, then why not pony up for the chance of 5 good prime years, averaging 7-1/2 innings a start? If his ERA doubles what it was in Japan for the past few years, he still finishes in the Cy Young discussion. This is a risk I like. Much better than banking on a guy to all of a sudden not have injuries like he did in 80% of his previous seasons. (Yankees last season.)

So 8 years, $275M? 10 years, $300M? 7 years, $250M? Some combination thereof? Something along there is where it will end up and I'm in. I might be calling my doctor for some stress meds, but I'm in.

[longgame]

That's kind of what I've been saying for years Mongo.  The Sox have acted as if they make the market the past few years and as a result is seen by the market as cheap.  They keep going after guys with way under-sized bids and people stopped listening to them and will stop until they show up with a wheelbarrow of money.  I've said it a bunch of times right here - identify a target and go out and get them.  If they want Yamamoto, you're right, that's probably the starting point even right now.  Give him an offer.  At the same time, like I've also said, are they sending flowers every morning to Mrs. Montgomery?  Are they wining and dining them with Cora, Bailey, Pedro, Varitek and others?  Has he been to Bruins and Celtics games with other players? (keep him away from the Pats!).  I've heard a few pundits say the Sox work quietly, but I think that's because they don't do anything worth talking about, at least in a positive way.

[MongoLikeSox]

I understand. The Free Agents problems are older than that, though. Even when we could got good players in the pre-Bloom era, the bigger ones we've chased down and landed seemed to fall into some sort of combination of screwy fitment, attitude issues or prone to injury.

We've gotten some good filler players here and there. We've even gotten really lucky a time or two including Dave Ortiz. There have been so many seasons, though, that were lost because of that "one need" that wasn't filled. It's repeated it self over and over again. It's almost always foreseeable and it's always maddening.

Maybe FSG lost their nerve after the Gold Bust Twins, David Price or maybe even earlier with Adrian Gonzalez and getting used by Teixeira to drive up the price for the Yankees and all of that "class" of theirs. 

[SeaBeachFred]

I understand. The Free Agents problems are older than that, though. Even when we could got good players in the pre-Bloom era, the bigger ones we've chased down and landed seemed to fall into some sort of combination of screwy fitment, attitude issues or prone to injury.

We've gotten some good filler players here and there. We've even gotten really lucky a time or two including Dave Ortiz. There have been so many seasons, though, that were lost because of that "one need" that wasn't filled. It's repeated it self over and over again. It's almost always foreseeable and it's always maddening.

Maybe FSG lost their nerve after the Gold Bust Twins, David Price or maybe even earlier with Adrian Gonzalez and getting used by Teixeira to drive up the price for the Yankees and all of that "class" of theirs.

It's aggravating that the Red Sox still haven't done a damn thing to improve their team and we are almost in the middle of December.  What the hell are they waiting for, for Prune Face to stop counting his money and see what spare change he has for subpar talent?  For Pete's sake front office get off your dumb asses and start filling our team with some credible ballplayers instead of those minor league has-beens you've been signing so far.